David Croft looks back at the season so far and ahead to what the remainder of the year might hold.
So, with racing action set to resume at Spa and an even more hectic schedule afoot between now and the season finale in Brazil, we got Sky Sports F1 commentator
David Croft to provide a recap on the year so far and look ahead to what the title race might have in store.
We've just had a month off following a quite fascinating start to the 2012 season. What's your assessment of what we've seen so far?DC: Great variety, some brilliant racing, unpredictability linked into the tyres. Some teams switching them on in one race but not getting it the next race; some drivers switching it on in a race while his team-mate struggles. Different atmospheric conditions changing how a car is reacting with the tyres which at times has given us a bit of a lottery, but it's certainly spiced up the racing.
But in the last few races some teams have started to get more of an understanding - Red Bull, McLaren, at times, and Ferrari - making massive gains from pre-season to where we are now. Lotus as well. So we've had a massive wide-open championship but maybe we're just narrowing it down to the point where the cream are starting to come through.
Are we going to get more shock wins like Pastor Maldonado's in Spain? Possibly, but I think that's looking less and less likely. Maldonado's not really repeated his brilliance from Spain, instead we've seen some inconsistent driving in races - he just attracts too much trouble and gets himself in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Williams had a magical weekend in Spain where everything worked out for them: Lewis had the penalty, Lotus didn't do it in qualifying, Ferrari weren't quite there and they made capital on that. But I think that now those opportunities will become less and less because the bigger teams are starting to understand the tyres that much more. So we are going to get a battle that was kind of wide open now filtering into a closer battle between now and Brazil.
Fernando Alonso has sort of made light of that unpredictability despite not having the fastest car and opened up a 40-point championship lead. In anyone's book that's quite a commanding advantage, so how many drivers do you think are still realistically in the hunt for the drivers' crown - everyone down to Kimi Raikkonen in fifth place?DC: Kimi's 48 points behind - two DNFs for Fernando Alonso, two wins for Kimi, he's two points in front. There are 225 points up for grabs aren't there so anyone who is within 50 points has still got a chance.
But if Alonso keeps up his consistency both in terms of picking up the points and driving pretty flawlessly during the course of the race it's going to be pretty difficult for somebody to overtake him. Indeed for somebody to overtake him you need to see a Kimi or a Lewis or a Sebastian or a Mark being consistent themselves, not giving points away to others. Mark won at Silverstone, since when he's had a couple of eighth-place finishes - that's not a championship challenge there. You've got to be doing better than that.
For whatever reason Mark has given a lot of points away to Fernando in the last two races and as time runs out you just can't afford to do that. I think the contenders are all there but the beauty for Alonso is that they might take points off each other and they might protect his lead by doing well themselves.
Alonso's also in a situation where he can target a couple of race wins. He can target Monza, which is a totally unique set-up and track to any other, in the same way that Brawn in the second half of their championship-winning season did to pick up maximum points to ensure that they went and won it, rather than developing for every race.
So Ferrari cannot take their foot off the gas a bit, but target specific races to 'where is our car best suited, where can we pick up those race wins'. But for a challenger to come, they've got to start producing consistent, flawless performances.
Just how impressed have you been with the way Alonso has put his season together so far?DC: His car was three seconds off the pace in pre-season testing. Ferrari didn't even allow reporters to talk to their drivers because their drivers had nothing positive to say. But he turned up in Spain saying, right, we know we're not the best, we just have to pick up whatever points we can and get to the test, develop the car, sort it out in the test and then go for podiums and wins. He'd thought it through already.
Malaysia was a bonus, let's face it. He didn't expect to win there. But he thinks the long game all the time. After Mark Webber beat him at Silverstone was he upset, was he unhappy, was he down heartened? Maybe a little bit inside but outwardly he's saying 'no, I've given seven points away to my nearest rival - only seven points - and in the championship I've picked up 18 really precious points'.
He thinks about the long-term. He didn't put up a fight when Lewis Hamilton was going to beat him in Canada because he knew that he wasn't on the right title strategy, he knew that he was going to get beaten. So rather than putting up a fight that meant he could get nothing, he made sure that he was safe when Hamilton was getting past him.
Lewis didn't do the same with Pastor Maldonado in Valencia. That's not a criticism, but he didn't and he got nothing. So he's always thinking the long-term game is Alonso. It's one of the things I think is brilliant about him - he's a percentage driver. He will calculate everything he needs to do; he will know where his rivals are on the track at all times.
In Germany, Sebastian was saying Lewis was stupid for trying to come past him and unlap himself and fighting it with Lewis. Alonso was saying, 'well, if he gets near me I'd have let him past, I would have let him go, I'm not racing him'. He thinks about the long game.
Given that, on the evidence of the last race in Hungary at least, Ferrari went into the break with only the fourth-fastest car, will that ability of Alonso's to manage a race and manage a championship challenge prove the greatest ace card in his armoury over the rest of the season?DC: It already has to be honest. He's missed out in World Championships by a point so he knows now that every point is precious. He knows not to make stupid mistakes and just to play the percentage game a little bit.
He's got vast experience out there - okay, he's one of six World Champions on the grid so everyone around him has got experience apart from Mark Webber in winning a championship - but I think it's benefited already.
Looking back at some of the other team and driver performances so far, whose form has disappointed you slightly and who would you like to see more from when the season resumes?DC:You could say Force India have been a disappointment, they've slipped back a bit, but actually those around them have made gains rather than Force India slipping back. They've not been able to get the podiums and get the wins so far. So that would be unfair to say that.
Toro Rosso have disappointed me though, they've not really moved on a pace. The three new teams, however much they say we're catching people, they're still not scoring points. I want to see some forward momentum from the back of the grid. I also want to see Felipe Massa do better: if his team-mate's leading the world championship he shouldn't be over a hundred points behind him, even if the car hasn't been brilliant.
I want to see more consistency from Pastor Maldonado who I think is great box office. He's a cracking driver but attracts trouble. He's a bit of a crash magnet. Sauber and Williams have had a really positive season. Williams have many more points than they had last year but the man who brings them their biggest chunk of the budget has also been throwing points away. So it's quite a conundrum for them.
And I want to see Jenson Button being consistent as well and getting the opportunity to do it. We might be seeing the start of that now - in Germany he looked a different driver to the driver that was stuck behind Heikki Kovalainen at Monaco. So he's there or thereabouts, others have got a bit more to catch up.
You touched on the fact that there were signs just before the break that the top teams were starting to really get a handle on the tyres. So if that's perhaps slowly becoming less of an issue, what do you reckon will be the key determining factors in the title race over the rest of the season?DC: Development is always key. A driver needs a car that can compete, not every driver is Fernando Alonso out there. Consistency's a key, constant development is a key. Taking the opportunities when they come and also not throwing things away when you've got the fastest car. Getting your qualifying right. Finding new innovations to stay ahead of the pack - which is why I'll be fascinated with Lotus in Spa.
How much is that double DRS worth? I'm told by people within the team it could be worth half a second a lap in terms of raw pace. That's in the race, so in qualifying it might be even more. Are we about to see that development give Lotus a great step ahead? Spa and Monza, that will be vital for them, less so in Singapore. But they've got to get the strategy right, get the driving right and everything right to go with that. There's no point having the raw pace if you then can't protect your tyre wear as well for instance.
Mercedes were finding that with their DRS system their tyres weren't lasting quite so well but they had the raw pace there. So everything comes hand in hand.
Looking ahead to Spa, Lotus also have comfort of knowing that Kimi Raikkonen has been mega around the circuit in the past - winning on four of his last five appearances. So if he could win there it could really build some momentum for both him and the team couldn't it?DC: Kimi Raikkonen could be a massive danger at Spa. To Alonso, to Hamilton, to everyone. But don't forget that McLaren have made big upgrades and Lewis has been mighty at Spa before. So I don't think Kimi's going to have it all his own way but it might be that he's got the right car for the right track at the right time.
All I know is that we're going to be able to see it live on
Sky Sports F1. It's the only constant throughout the entire nine races to come - that every race is going to be live on Sky Sports. Bring it on.
But just before you go, one final crucial question: Will the title fight go down to the wire in Brazil come November 25?DC: No. I'll prepare myself for a massive fall here, I think we'll get it wrapped up before Austin - so before the penultimate race.
I could be wrong but I've just got a feeling that Alonso's going to win it and I've had that feeling since Malaysia to be honest. And I really wish I'd had a bet on him then!
