The struggle to fathom the unpredictable

And it's not just the fluctuating fortunes up and down the field that confused F1 and Sky Sports F1's Martin Brundle at Spa. There was also plenty of confusion at the behaviour and driving of Lewis Hamilton, Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado...

If we expected the second half of the season to be more normal and predictable then Spa soon changed that notion. The third Friday washout in four races put the teams on their back foot once again, and many new upgrades from the summer break were left unused or unverified. The Saturday morning session became critical once again and it was clear that there would be some surprises. The usual suspects were near the front, but grip and performance seemed unpredictable and straight line speeds varied wildly. Practice 3 didn't suggest that Jenson Button was about to dominate the weekend though. He seemed reasonably happy with his car and decided to stick with the new rear wing. I was out and about alongside the track and it was clear that Lewis Hamilton was sliding around and skinny on downforce. In what would become the story of Saturday evening 'they' decided to revert to the Hungary rear wing. It proved to be a mistake and we were all able to read plenty about it via twitter from a disappointed Lewis. I can't work Lewis out, his apparent demeanour swings around so much. In Hungary he appeared supremely happy, content and approachable. And unbeatable. In Spa he was not. I don't know if his mood determines his performance, or vice versa. He clearly wants to poke the team at the moment and I suspect he was pretty successful in doing that. Normally he is waxing lyrical about them at every opportunity and until he finds an even keel and a settled environment he will not deliver his enormous potential. He is one of the greatest and most natural talents of all time, I hope he makes the most of it. Jenson found a groove and rhythm around Spa that was so effective that frankly nobody was going to beat him to pole or victory, other than a first corner wipe out which he mercifully avoided. He is the first driver in 2012 to lead a race from start to finish and it very much looked as if he would have easily controlled the whole field regardless of first corner dramas. Romain Grosjean has had so many first lap incidents that it simply can't be bad fortune. Either he assumes others will yield, he lacks spatial awareness, or he is simply too aggressive and wild and needs to calm down. I think a one race ban is fully deserved. My team-mate Mika Hakkinen received a ban in 1994 for causing a first corner shunt in Hockenheim. So did Eddie Irvine in 1994 for causing a shunt in Brazil which as it happened nearly killed me, although frankly given all the circumstances of that shunt, my McLaren had just lunched its engine as he followed me three abreast, I thought his penalty was unfair. There appears to be an actual or mental 'black book' kept by the Stewards, and although the Stewards vary from race to race, they obviously carefully note those who regularly turn up at the headmaster's door. That's inevitable and it's right to react to a pattern or serial offender. Maldonado has now received nine penalties in 2012 and he was top of the tables last year with nine too. Just like with Michael Schumacher in Abu Dhabi a couple of years back when Liuzzi slid up the front of his car, I breathed a sigh of relief on Sunday that we hadn't lost a world champion driver in Fernando Alonso, or any other driver. I can't help but wonder if Lewis could have done a little more to try to avoid the contact, just as with Maldonado back in the closing stages of the Valencia European GP. In both cases Lewis was at zero fault, but he still needs to finish the race. He might just have lifted off, braked slightly, or moved a half a metre further right to avoid his car being collected by the errant Lotus. It's like having some clown pulling out in of a T Junction immediately in front of you, it's all his fault but there still no point in having the accident if you can avoid or minimise it. Watching the GP2 races at the weekend, from where half the current F1 grid emerged, it's not difficult to see where the problem lies. They were happy taking the lead or having a shunt into La Source driving fully down the grass which Lewis sensibly was reluctant to take to. There is so much craziness and aggression in junior formulae they are clearly convinced that the car and track facilities will save them whatever happens. If they observe Raikkonen versus Schumacher and Vettel versus Schumacher in Spa they will see how you race extremely hard without recklessly risking injury or retirement. Pastor Maldonado said that his hand slipped on the clutch hence the jump start. He should do that again but at the right moment because it was a peachy getaway.... I'm rather surprised the anti-stall didn't kick in if that was the case. Pastor is another man who is probably guilty until proven innocent in the Stewards' office given his form. Williams must be tearing their hair out, the kid has majestic speed but it's costing them a fortune in points and repairs. Like Grosjean, Maldonado seems a thoroughly decent human being with an engaging personality and smile. Looking through the letterbox of a crash helmet visor seems to alter their persona and they simply have to sort it out if they are to fulfill their potential and keep a seat long term in F1. So the championship is very much back on, and I still believe that Alonso's best chance in securing the title is if his main rivals keep taking points off each other. Ferrari told me after the race that they were absolutely sure of a strong podium given their tyre wear and strategy, and Massa's performance rather confirmed that. Against much expectation Lotus could not really deliver on real pace and had to carry too much wing to achieve good grip. Kimi Raikkonen, who has previously only ever seen the chequered flag at Spa as the winner, did pretty well to salvage third. His move around Schumacher into Eau Rouge was pure class and bravery. I thoroughly enjoyed Schumacher's determined drive even if his late dart into the pit lane was too brutal and rude against Vettel. Once again DRS gave us some great action up into Les Combes, but so did the none DRS action, maybe even more so, into and out of the final Bus Stop chicane. Eight to go and thankfully the season shows no sign becoming predictable. MB