The season may have been started slow but the recent action has certainly woken up Stuart Barnes!
Vital games for all twelve clubs
It has been a slow burning fuse of a season in English domestic rugby terms but what an explosive finish we are guaranteed.
Patience, if you are a supporter of the club game, really is a virtue. The rugby has been unimaginative and unimpressive for much of the campaign; the failures of the English to achieve more than one team in the two sets of European semi finals is a fair reflection on the mediocrity of much of the rugby but suddenly, as if someone has uttered the words, 'open sesame', the defensive doors are being forced open all over the land as attacking invention overwhelms the innate negativity that has stifled the English game for too long.
No side epitomises it as much as the Saracens. Sixteen tries in sixteen Premiership matches on their long and gruelling march towards the play offs until the recent spell of defeats snapped them out of their inertia. Eighteen tries in their last four games....this is one of the most incredible transformations club rugby has seen in so short a time.
If the rugby is good the competition is unbelievable. I have not checked the records but I cannot believe the Premiership has ever ended with such a crescendo of significance. Heading into the final fortnight of the regular season there is not one of the twelve clubs without something of significance for which to fight. You think I am kidding, maybe guilty of typical television hyperbole?
Well, try this. On Tuesday night Bath meets Northampton at the Recreation Ground. Bath is abuzz with the excitement of a new owner with great ambitions and Sunday's sensational victory for Leeds at London Irish has made expectations even more immediate.
The late surging Bath can move level with Irish if they win with a bonus point and within a solitary point if they achieve a win - which is probably the best they can hope against a Northampton team that bounced back superbly from their disappointment in Limerick.
Defeat does not rule them entirely out of the top four but it makes the likelihood considerably less. The Saints cannot afford to take their foot off the pedal because Saracens are chasing them for a top two spot and the considerable benefit of home advantage (or more pertinently, not travelling to either East Midlands venues). It promises to be a magnificent atmosphere and game.
Quins hoping for Wasps success
Let's look ahead to the weekend where the fixture organisers have achieved miraculous feats of organisation. Leicester versus Harlequins is the least exciting fixture. The Tigers must win to guarantee a home semi final. Harlequins are hoping Wasps can win the Amlin Cup and allow the seventh placed English club to sneak into next season's Heineken Cup. They are one point ahead of Gloucester going into the weekend.
Gloucester meets London Irish, now a point behind Wasps in the race for the play off's fourth spot. Irish were stunned by Leeds' win on Sunday.
Nothing but a win at Kingsholm of all places will do if they are not to lose further ground in that crucial scrap for fourth place. Gloucester needs the win, which would probably see them leapfrog a Harlequins team whose journey to Leicester most expects to be a forlorn one.
There is nothing forlorn about Saracens trip to Northampton. Unbeaten at home this season, Saracens know that if Northampton loses at Bath they could yet inch into a top two finish and a home semi final. They also are well aware that two more points are required to guarantee a place in the top four. Wasps could achieve 63 points (Saracens are currently on 61 with an overwhelming points difference superiority which leaves Wasps needing to finish a point clear) while Irish can reach 62 points with a better points difference which would play even further in their favour were they to win their last two games and Saracens lose theirs. As Saracens last league game is Leicester away nothing can be taken for granted; Irish's loss gives them breathing space but there's work yet to be done.
Wembley wondering
Which brings us to Wembley where Wasps and Bath collide in a game that takes on even greater significance should Bath beat the Saints.
Whatever happens, Wasps are playing for high stakes now they find they are one point ahead of Irish in fourth place. Already this is a thriller but a Bath win Tuesday means that if Gloucester beats London Irish as they must if they wish to qualify for the Heineken, a Bath win at Twickenham would take them into fourth spot with Leeds to come in the final week of the season - in Bath.
Having already beaten Wasps home and away, Saracens at home and Irish in Reading last Sunday, it would be foolish to presume a home win against Leeds but considering they have climbed from alongside Leeds at the bottom around Christmas to potential play off candidates this has been a staggering rise.
Staggering also is the fact that Leeds have organised and fought their way into tenth position with Worcester to come at home; given limited resources Neil Back and Andy Key have done superbly and shown the benefits of shrewd coaching.
One more victory and Leeds will be safe. That would represent an enormous achievement and win Back my vote for coach of the season - if I had one! That game speaks for itself but it is not the relegation decider that some lazy journalism would have you believe if Leeds wins.
Worcester - with a losing bonus point - clambers to 27 points, four behind Sale and five behind Newcastle. Whoever wins this other weekend teaser between ninth and tenth placed teams (it truly is an amazing set of fixtures isn't it?) is clear but the loser is at risk if Worcester manages a single losing bonus point.
Newcastle has the breathing space of 32 to Sale's 31 points. Worcester has a superior point differential to either Newcastle (a mere 7 points) or Sale (a relatively whopping 40). A bonus point win at home to Gloucester ( who are unreliable on the road) would take them to safety if Newcastle lost to Sale and then without a point to a Wasps team fighting for the play offs in the North East.
A Newcastle win in Sale would create serious nerves in Kingsley Jones's club's ranks. If Sale lost without a bonus point Worcester could overtake even without picking up a point in Yorkshire by winning at home to Gloucester with four tries if Sale got nothing away to Harlequins on round 22....
All this tension if Leeds wins. If they lose Worcester climbs to 30/31 points, Leeds has 32/33; Sale and Newcastle (draw asides and who would bet against that eventuality?) would be on 31/32 (if Sale loses) or 32/33 (if Newcastle loses).
Has there ever been a relegation scrap quite like this one, has there ever been such a finale to the Guinness Premiership? Slow burning fuse but locate those ear muffs, the regular season is finishing with the biggest bang in its brief history.
I hope that all makes sense. If not ponder this fact. On the 20th September, 2009, London Irish beat Leeds 56-7 in Leeds. On Sunday Leeds turned the point difference around by 59 points to flip the final weeks on their head at the top and bottom of the table. Maybe this column shouldn't make sense if the words are to reflect the final twists and turns of the campaign. Roll on the weekend...
Stuart answers your emails...
Got a question for Stuart? Email him at skysportsclub@bskyb.com or use the feedback form below...
Winning matters
Stuart, with the amount of young talent switching teams this year do you think we need measures to protect the interests of the clubs, particularly the likes of Leeds who must be questioning the point of working hard to bring on talented youngsters only for them to move on in their late teens, early twenties.
Cheers, Mark Jones, Tring, Herts
STUART REPLIES: Mark, if Leeds maintain the form of their last few months young talent nurtured in Yorkshire will be far less likely to leave. Sport - like life - is no easy matter and to make the top and stay there sides have to produce reasons why bright young talent should stay. Winning and playing a brand of rugby that the individual enjoys is part of this process. The top teams draw the best players and the strugglers lose them...it is tough but that's life and someone like Neil Back probably wants it no other way. Win and you have a chance, lose and you fail.
Pienaar for Ulster?
Stuart, the news in the Belfast air this week is that Ruan Pienaar is heavily tipped for a move to Ulster Rugby for the 2010/2011. Even as an Ulster fan this baffles me. Why firstly would he move to Europe during the World Cup year thus excluding him from South African World Cup squad and secondly why Ulster where he would clearly not get as much money as opposed to a move to France? Please can I have your opinion on this?
Regards, Samuel McCormick
STUART REPLIES: Sam, maybe Ulster has found their own 'Bruce Craig' as Bath has done? Other than a huge sum of money I see no reason why Pienaar would risk a South African World Cup berth to play in Europe, Giants Causeway's charms or not...mind you, the balance between club and country is chnaging as Carl Hayman's move to Toulon has proved...or maybe it's just a rotten rumour....
Too many players?
Stuart, Why is England taking such a huge squad down to Australia this summer? What with injuries etc surely some players will end up just going along to make up the numbers. How much will the management team learn about these players when some will inevitability get so little game time?
Rob
STUART REPLIES: Rob, forty something seems excessive, especially as other countries bring far fewer on their tours, but England does things its own way and heaven forbid those who question the motives.A squad in the mid-thirties seems ideal for a five match tour giving everyone a chance to establish their presence where it matters, on the field rather than holding tackle bags...wish I could give you an answer but I can't - sorry.
Respect for clubs
Yes it's good news for Saints but appalling behaviour from Soane Tonga'uiha. What happens next year if Saints have a bad season? Will he go back on his new contract and up and leave. It just makes a mockery of contracts in rugby. We seem to be becoming more like football with players showing no respect for the clubs and the contracts they have signed. There is always a lot being said about protecting players etc, but what about protecting the clubs too?
Dan Taylor
STUART REPLIES: Dan, the whole business left a sour taste in the mouth didn't it? The Saints prop perhaps took some ill advice from someone close to his ear and regretted it as the season drew near its end but frankly honour suggested he should have left but if he was adament that he had changed mind what could Saracens do? There is no point signing reluctant players.....I feel for Saracens but I don't know the details of the contractual arrangements betwen man and club so all I can do is agree with you in the broadest sense and hope for honour amongst rugby players; that and individuals thinking things through for themselves rather than perhaps taking advice that is unsuitable....I have a feeling there might just be another 'profession' that preys on naive sportsman involved, but that's just a hunch so I'll leave you to ponder the point.
